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Probe Landing Simulation (~Year 3025)

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About the Simulation

This simulation models the hypothetical return and landing of a highly durable probe sent from the distant past, arriving back at Earth approximately 1000 years in the future (~Year 3025). It assumes a technologically capable civilization exists on this future Earth.

What it Simulates:

The simulation uses a series of probabilistic checks (like rolling dice) to determine the outcome of the probe's arrival, considering several key factors:

  • Re-entry Angle: Checks if the probe enters the atmosphere at a viable angle.
  • Parachute Deployment: Simulates the low (10%) chance of the mechanism working after 1000 years.
  • Landing Location: Determines a random landing zone (weighted by area), refining it if on land.
  • Coastal Check: Adds a random chance (15%) for land impacts to be near a coast.
  • Surface Type: Estimates ground composition (water, ice, desert, forest, soil, coastal).
  • Disk Survival: Calculates the probability of data disks surviving impact, based on parachute status and surface type.
  • Time of Day: Randomly determines day or night impact.
  • Map: Visualizes the landing spot if specific land coordinates are generated.

How to Interpret the Results:

  • Step-by-Step Log: Follow the sequence of checks.
  • Map: If shown, gives a visual approximation of the landing site.
  • Disk Status: Shows if the data payload likely survived the impact.
  • Narrative Blurb: Provides a short description assuming detection by the future civilization.
  • Final Outcome Message: Summarizes success based on data survival AND likelihood of recovery (Success, Success (Potentially), Warning/Effective Failure, Failure).

Important Note: This is a simplified probabilistic model for illustrative purposes and doesn't perform complex physics calculations. Probabilities are estimates.

Click the button to simulate the probe's landing...